Australia's National Electricity Market is undergoing a structural shift in storage duration, according to the latest data from AEMO and analyst firm Modo Energy.

A connection queue dominated by batteries

AEMO's quarterly Connections Scorecard for September 2026 shows the connections pipeline grew 43% year-on-year and, for the first time, overtook the NEM's 77 GW of existing capacity. Of 25 new connection applications totalling 7.5 GW during the quarter, more than three quarters — 5.8 GW — were batteries.

Across the end-to-end process from application to commissioning, grid-scale batteries account for 55% of capacity, followed by hybrid solar-plus-battery projects (19%), wind (15%), solar (5%), hydro (5%) and gas (1%).

"Nearly 40% of battery projects in the pipeline can provide between three and 10 hours of storage," said James Lindley, AEMO group manager for onboarding and connections.

Duration is lengthening

Modo Energy says two-hour systems still account for most operating capacity in the NEM — 5.2 GW of 7.3 GW installed. But the firm forecasts four-hour-plus batteries to overtake them by 2030, with 24.4 GW of four-hour-or-longer capacity, including 2.6 GW at eight hours.

Modo market analyst Barnaby Winser expects 54% of the 12.5 GW of capacity added by 2030 to have a duration of four hours or more, compared with just 8% of today's fleet. The NEM's battery pipeline, he notes, is shifting towards longer-duration and co-located assets.

The economics behind the shift

Modo's modelling projects optimal duration extending beyond four hours into the 2030s as coal retirements lengthen scarcity periods and shorter-duration arbitrage spreads compress. Scarce connection capacity and favourable economics are also pushing developers towards longer-duration and co-located designs.

For the long-duration energy storage industry, the signal is that multi-hour storage is becoming mainstream procurement in one of the world's most transparent battery markets. The pipeline remains dominated by lithium-ion, leaving room for flow batteries and other technologies to compete where eight-hour-plus duty cycles become the norm.

This article was assisted by AI analysis. Please refer to the original source for official information.